Home Daily Commentaries NZD steady as focus turns to US Presidential Debate and inflation data

NZD steady as focus turns to US Presidential Debate and inflation data

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar tracked a very narrow range through trade on Tuesday edging marginally higher having tested a break above US$0.6150. Markets seem content in sidelining major bets ahead of today’s major risk events, US CPI numbers and the Trump vs. Harris Presidential debate. While holding above US$0.61 the NZD remains vulnerable to further fluctuations in the risk narrative as the outlook for key commodities and the domestic economy is somewhat clouded. China trade data for August was mixed as weak domestic demand and ongoing concerns for China’s beleaguered property market continue to weigh on commodity prices while acting as a headwind pushing against risk on moves.

Our focus today sits on the US Presidential Debate and US CPI numbers. With the election under 2 months away, this will likely be the only debate between the candidates and will be crucial in shaping expectations for the Oval Office.

Key Movers

Price action was muted through trade on Tuesday as the USD tracked within a narrow range when measured against a basket of major peers while most G10 currencies offered little to excite investors. Investors seemed content in sidelining major bets ahead of today's all-important US presidential debate and tonight’s US CPI inflation update. With the Fed’s focus shifting to the labour market we expect the market reaction to CPI number to be muted when compared to the data points influence over recent years, however, a surprise miss could see investors scrambling to adjust positions ahead of next week's Fed policy meeting. Instead, our attention will likely be glued to the first Trump vs. Harris debate. With such conflicting agendas at stake, there is ample room for volatility across financial markets as analysts adjust bets on who will take the Oval Office come November.

Note: The CAD underperformed on the day after the Canadian Government declared it would begin implementing Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles while announcing a consultation period with the prospect of extending tariffs to include batteries, battery parts semiconductors, solar products and critical minerals.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6080 - 0.6230 ▲
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5520 - 0.5620 ▲
  • GBP/NZD: 2.1100 - 2.1400 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 0.9180 - 0.9280 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8320 - 0.8420 ▲

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.