Home Daily Commentaries USD holds steady ahead of inflation data release

USD holds steady ahead of inflation data release

Melanie Scott
Written by
Melanie Scott

Melanie Scott

OFXpert

Fascinated by the mechanisms that shape financial markets and their impact on currencies, Melanie is passionate about understanding how different factors shape market movements.

| Monday 13 May, 2024

Daily Currency Update

The US dollar remained stable this morning ahead of the inflation data releases set for later this week. Inflation figures this week could determine expectations for earlier Federal Reserve Rate Cuts. Recent labor market data and the Fed ruling out future rate rises resulted in markets pricing in more easing from the Fed this year. US Producer Price Index (PPI) data is expected out on Tuesday and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data as well as retail sales numbers are set to be released on Wednesday. Markets forecasted stick inflation with PPI forecasted to rise 0.3% and CPI expected to gain 0.4%.

Key Movers

The EUR/USD continued its daily uptrend to trade positively above the 1.08 level this morning. Markets priced in rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) to be earlier and at a faster decline than the Fed is expected to. This week the Eurozone will see Q1 preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data which is set to be released on Wednesday. GDP numbers will help to supply a fresh outlook into the Eurozone’s economic health. The EUR/USD pair will be most driven by the US CPI numbers this week.

In Swiss news, the Switzerland Consumer Confidence Survey which surveyed household confidence on economic conditions came in above expectations at -38.1 versus the expected -40. This slight increase above the anticipated level could indicate increased consumer spending.

The CAD remained mostly unchanged over the weekend against the USD but dropped this morning against the EUR, GBP, and AUD. This drop followed the monthly Building Permits data release which came in lower than expected at -11.7%, versus the expected -4.6% and previous 8.9%. This dip in building permits signified a decline in demand in the housing market. In oil news, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was up this morning by around 1.08% to the 78.546 level. This regained strength could lend some minor support to the CAD today.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 1.07657 - 1.08068 ▲
  • GBP/USD: 1.25100 - 1.25685 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.65857 - 0.66287 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.36606 - 1.36897 ▲

Written by

Melanie Scott

OFXpert

Fascinated by the mechanisms that shape financial markets and their impact on currencies, Melanie is passionate about understanding how different factors shape market movements, and deciphering what these fluctuations signify for different currencies. As a Corporate Client Associate at OFX, she works closely with businesses across North America, offering them insights into foreign exchange strategies aimed at mitigating currency risks.

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