Home Daily Commentaries Aussie dollar consolidates around US$0.69

Aussie dollar consolidates around US$0.69

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6898 at time of writing. The AUD/USD gained traction on Friday. Optimism surrounding China's stimulus measures, including monetary easing by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), provided support to the Australian dollar and boosting risk appetite among investors. China's central bank said on Sunday it would tell banks to lower mortgage rates for existing home loans before Oct. 31, as part of sweeping policies to support the country's beleaguered property market as the economy slows. It is expected to cut existing mortgage rates by about 50 bps on average. Across China, a slew of policies including reductions in down-payment ratios and mortgage rates have been introduced this year to support China's crisis-hit property market. But the stimulus measures have struggled to boost sales or increase liquidity in a market shunned by buyers that has remained a big drag on broader economic growth. Looking ahead this week and on Tuesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest monthly retail sales figures along with the monthly Building Approvals. On Thursday we will see the release of the Goods Trade Balance. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

Key Movers

The US dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of major currencies, stands soft after the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data from August. The headline PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation measure, came in softer than expected, while the core PCE inflation matched expectations. U.S. consumer spending increased slightly less than expected in August, but that did little to change expectations that solid economic growth persisted in the third quarter, while the annual rise in prices was the smallest in just over 3-1/2 years. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and the lowest since February 2021. The Fed targets inflation at 2% annually. Strong growth expectations this quarter were underscored by other data from the Commerce Department on Friday showing the goods trade deficit narrowed by the most in nearly two years last month. That suggested trade would likely impose a modest drag on gross domestic product, which could be more than offset by a rise in inventories. September's employment report next week could offer more clues on the size of future reductions in borrowing costs. Stock market futures were positive following the report while Treasury yields were negative.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6800 - 0.7000 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.6100 - 0.6300 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.9250 - 1.9450 ▼
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.9250 - 0.9450 ▲

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.