Home Daily Commentaries New Zealand dollar holds steady below 63 US cents 

New Zealand dollar holds steady below 63 US cents 

Brett Ottawa
Written by
Brett Ottawa

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market.

| Thursday 3 October, 2024

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at US$0.6259 at time of writing. NZDUSD traded around US$0.6290 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The upside of this risk-sensitive pair could be restrained due to rising risk aversion sentiment. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) monetary policy meeting is set for next week, and markets have already priced in a strong likelihood of a 50 basis point interest rate cut. HSBC analysts now expect the RBNZ to lower its cash rate by 50 basis points in both October and November, revising their earlier forecast of 25 basis point cuts for each month. Looking forward, Friday in New Zealand we will see the latest monthly ANZ Commodity Price Index.

Key Movers

AUDJPY retraces its recent losses registered in the previous day, trading around 99.40 during Wednesday’s European session. The Japanese yen (JPY) received downward pressure as the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions from September’s Monetary Policy Meeting indicates no immediate plans for additional rate hikes. The BoJ intends to maintain its accommodating stance but remains open to adjustments if economic conditions show significant improvement. The USD recovered against the yen on Wednesday, rallying over 2% after Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba commented the economic environment is not ready for additional rate hikes. USDJPY has picked up traction again above 144.00, trading 0.50% higher at 144.27.

In the US Private sector, employment rose 143,000 in September, and annual pay was up 4.7% year-over-year, according to Wednesday's Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report. The jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained anonymised and aggregated payroll data to provide a representative picture of the private-sector labour market. Market participants have placed the odds of the Fed cutting rates by 25 bps at 64%, while the chances for a more significant 50 bps cut have diminished to 36%, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6150 - 0.6350 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5550 - 0.5750 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 2.1050 - 2.1250 ▲
  • NZD/AUD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8350 - 0.8550 ▲

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.