Daily Currency Update
Yesterday saw the Bank of England raise interest rates for the fifth consecutive meeting to fight inflation that is at a 40 year high. The bank voted 6-3 in favour of lifting rates 0.25%, taking them to 1.25% with the minority wanting a hike of 0.5%. The markets had been expecting a rise of 0.5% so when 0.25% materialised the pound fell across the board. GBP/USD dropped over a cent to bottom out at 1.2040 before recovering. GBP/USD touched 1.24 yesterday evening as investors focused on the fact that the BoE will be continuing to raise rates and that could include a 0.5% hike at its next meeting. It should be noted that the BoE has never raised rates by more than 0.25%, so yesterday’s outcome wasn't a complete surprise. As mentioned throughout the week, members of the Monetary Policy Committee face a tricky task of trying to bring prices rises under control whilst not pushing the economy into recession. A period of flat lining growth or a small contraction should assist in bring inflation down, however the BoE needs to avoid taking too severe action that could send the UK economy into a deep recession. GBP/USD is now trading around 1.23 with GBP/EUR just under 1.17.
Key Movers
After a very busy week of central bank policy announcements it’s a quiet Friday with little data of note being released. The US dollar has given up some of the gains seen after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.75% on Wednesday with EUR/USD back above 1.05 after coming close to a five year low midweek. One reason for the dollar’s weakness over the past 24 hours was the unexpected decision by the Swiss National Bank yesterday to raise rates from -0.75% to -0.25% with the SNB also removing from its policy statement the commentary about the currency being "strong." Like the US dollar the Swiss Franc is a safe haven currency so the prospect of the SNB raising rates further and accepting further strength drew investor funds from USD to CHF.
Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.2200 - 1.2400 ▲
- GBP/EUR: 1.1580 - 1.1765 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.7500 - 1.7670 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.0430 - 1.0600 ▲