Dollar strengthens after Trump assassination attempt
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Daily Currency Update
The US dollar opened stronger across the board this morning following the weekend's assassination attempt on Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The former President narrowly escaped serious injury, with one bullet grazing his ear, while a spectator in the crowd tragically lost their life. The shooter was swiftly neutralized by the Secret Service. The incident's implications are challenging to predict, but it appears Trump's chances of re-election might have increased as a result. Trump is scheduled to attend today's Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where he will be formally confirmed as the party's candidate for November's election. He is expected to speak at the rally on Thursday, and many hope for a more conciliatory tone, although predicting his remarks remains difficult.Additionally, contributing to the dollar's strength this morning was China's second-quarter GDP figure, which missed its target, showing a 4.7% increase compared to the same quarter a year ago, below the expected 5.1%. Concerns over the health of the world's second-largest economy have led some investors to seek the safety of the US Dollar. After dropping to 1.2955 at the start of the Asian session, GBP/USD is gradually climbing back up, currently at 1.2990. GBP/EUR remains close to its highest level since August 2022, currently at 1.1910.
Key Movers
Several top-tier data events are on the radar this week. The main focus from the UK will be Wednesday morning's inflation data. The Consumer Price Index is expected to show a moderation from 2% to 1.9% year on year. The odds of an August 1st rate cut from the BoE are currently a coin toss, so any deviation from expectations could cause some pound volatility. Thursday will bring the latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank, with a hold at 4.25% predicted. EUR/USD is currently heading back up to 1.09.Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.2930 - 1.3045 ▲
- GBP/EUR: 1.1860 - 1.1940 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.9040 - 1.9180 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.0880 - 1.1000 ▲