Home Daily Commentaries NZD edges back above US$0.62 amid softer US jobs data

NZD edges back above US$0.62 amid softer US jobs data

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar is marginally stronger this morning following softer US jobs data and a sharp decline across US treasuries overnight. With little of note on the domestic docket, the NZD tracked sideways through the local session bouncing between US$0.6170 and US$0.6190 before pushing back above US$0.62in offshore trade. US Jolt jobs data and the Fed Beige Book painted a gloomy picture of the US economy and drove calls for the Fed to cut rates by 50 points later this month. US treasuries tumbled dragging the dollar with them allowing the NZD to mark intraday highs at US$0.6212 before settling nearer US$0.62 leading into this morning’s open.

Our attentions now turn to US ISM services data and ADP employment numbers as key indicators of US macro health leading into tomorrow critical non-farm payroll print.

Key Movers

The US dollar fell through trade on Wednesday as softer-than-expected JOLTS jobs data spooked investors and elevated calls for a 50-point Fed rate cut. Job openings plunged to their lowest level in 3 years as vacancy rates and the resignation rate declined. The report when coupled with the Fed’s beige book paint a gloomy near-term picture for the US economy. Markets reacted to the jobs data and Beige Book by triggering a steep decline in Treasury yields, driving the USD down against all G10 pairs. The DY and BBDXY indices fell near half a percent while the Japanese yen lead gains, buoyed by the elevated risk aversion.

As anticipated, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points and doubled down on its call to expect more easing assuming inflation continues to fall. The decision was largely priced in and had little impact on CAD value as the Canadian dollar edged higher in line with other majors, buoyed by USD softness. With the euro trading back near US$1.11 and Sterling just south of US$1.3150, our attentions turn to US ISM services data and ADP employment numbers as key indicators of US macro health leading into tomorrow critical non-farm payroll print.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6120 - 0.6250 ▲
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5530 - 0.5630 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 2.1100 - 2.1400 ▲
  • NZD/AUD: 0.9180 - 0.9250 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8320 - 0.8420 ▼

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.