Canadian manufacturing sales dip month-over-month

Key Movers

The US Consumer Confidence Index which measures American’s assessment of current economic conditions and future economic outlook, rose to 117 in July. This is higher than the expected 110.5 and much higher than June’s reading of 110.1. Hitting the 117 level markets the highest US consumer confidence in 2 years. Future expectations, a subset of the consumer confidence report, are also higher. The future expectations index rose to 88.3 from 80.0 in June. Overall, the markets are seeing positive data out of the US today even though there is currently a 99% probability for another interest rate hike tomorrow according to current CME FedWatch futures.

In the Eurozone today, Germany’s July Information and Forschung (IFO) Business Climate Index reading comes in below expectations at 87.3 versus the expected 88.0. This index measures business owners’ sentiment given current market conditions. This is the lowest reading since November 2022, which is not a positive sign for the German economy and could depict the higher interest rates having a negative growth impact.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) reports Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has dropped to 3% in June from 3.1% in May. This drop strengthens the likelihood for the BoJ to maintain current policy settings going forward instead of tightening.

In Poland unemployment rates fell to 5% in June from 5.1% in May, this was in line with analysts’ expectations. This shows an improvement in the Polish labor market.