New Zealand dollar trades below US$0.59
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Daily Currency Update
The New Zealand dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.5880 at the time of writing. The Kiwi dollar edged higher during the Asian session on Friday snapping a six-day losing streak to its lowest level since early May. Last week on the data front New Zealand recorded a $669 million trade surplus in June, according to Stats NZ. Overseas merchandise trade data for June showed both imports and exports were down from a year earlier. According to Stats NZ goods exports fell by $7.4m or 0.1% to $6.2 billion. And goods imports fell to $5.5b, down $821m or 13% compared to June 2023. Year-on-year, milk powder, butter, and cheese exports fell $172m or 10% to $1.5b. Looking ahead this week and on Wednesday we will see the release of both Building Consents and ANZ Business Confidence. Building Consents is a leading gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building. The ANZ Business Confidence is a leading indicator of economic health. A survey of about 1,500-2,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 12-month economic outlook.Key Movers
U.S. prices increased moderately in June as the declining cost of goods tempered a rise in the cost of services, underscoring an improving inflation environment that could position the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September. The report from the Commerce Department on Friday also showed consumer spending slowed a bit last month. Signs of easing price pressures and a cooling labor market could boost the confidence of Fed officials that inflation is moving toward the U.S. central bank's 2% target. The Fed will hold its next policy meeting on July 30-31. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index nudged up 0.1% last month after being unchanged in May, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. The increase in PCE inflation was in line with economists' expectations. Goods prices dropped 0.2% after falling 0.4% in May. Prices for motor vehicles and parts declined 0.6%. Furnishings and durable household equipment prices dropped for a third straight month, but the cost of other long-lasting manufactured goods rebounded 1.8%.The Bank of England's first interest rate cut since 2020 hangs in the balance on Monday, with greater uncertainty than usual as key policymakers have not spoken publicly for more than two months due to rules in the run-up to July 4's election. Interest rate futures show a 50% chance of a quarter-point rate cut on Aug. 1. And while most economists in a Reuters poll still expect a cut, many would not be too surprised if the BoE instead waited until its following meeting on Sept. 19. Last month, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold, but minutes of the decision recorded that it had been a "finely balanced" decision for some of the policymakers who had not voted for a cut. Consumer price inflation has been at the BoE's 2% target in May and June, down from 6.7% when the BoE last raised rates in August 2023 and lower than in the United States or the euro zone, where the European Central Bank cut rates in June.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.5800 - 0.6000 ▲
- NZD/EUR: 0.5300 - 0.5500 ▲
- GBP/NZD: 2.1700 - 2.1900 ▲
- NZD/AUD: 1.1000 - 1.1200 ▲
- NZD/CAD: 0.8050 - 0.8250 ▲